IPL 2022: KKR’s chances of qualifying increased by almost 19%, SRH’s chances decreased to less than 13% – all playoff chances in 11 points | Cricket News

With the final weekend of IPL 2022 now only 9 matches left to play in the league stage, but that also translates into 512 possible combinations of results.
TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams reaching the playoffs. Although MI And CSK No longer qualify for the playoff stage, as on Sunday morning, May 15, three of the top four places are still open. till now GT They are the only team to qualify for the playoffs after Saturday’s win KKR Stick to its chances of qualifying for the next level. Here’s what the possibilities look like:
* With two more matches left to play, MI is out of calculation for the playoff spot
* CSK is also in the same boat. Two more matches but no chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
* KKR has doubled its chances of finishing in the top four as its playoff chances have increased from 9.4% on Friday to 18.8% on Saturday. SRH. Despite being the best, they could finish third in the points table, but they will share that position with four to six teams. Worst of all they will be eighth in the points table after the league stage
*DCThe chances of getting a place in the top four slots have increased slightly to 50%, but at best they can expect a combined second place which they will share with three to four teams.
*PBKS DC matches step by step and their chances of top-four finish have also increased to 50%. Like DC, PBKS will no longer be able to top the table, as their best chance now is a joint second place with three to four other contenders.
* Following the defeat against KKR on Saturday, SRH’s chances of being ranked in the top four have dropped to 12.5%. Of all the teams, they now have the least chance of qualifying
*RCBThe chances of getting a place in one of the top four slots have improved slightly to 81.3%. They will no longer be at the top of the points table. At best they can be in second place – a place they will share with three to four teams
*R.R. There is a 93.8% chance of being in the top four in terms of points. Their best chance is a joint first place they can share with two to three teams. At worst they can fall as low as fifth
*LSGThe nerve-racking week continues. This is their first IPL season and they can be sure to reach the top three slots on points. They can finish first with three teams, joint second with four teams and joint third with three teams.
* GT, even in its first IPL season, has been the only team to have a convincing qualification and can do nothing worse than a three-way tie for the top spot in which it ranks third on the net run rate.
* In short, bet on GT, LSG, RR and RCB that PBKS and DC have a relatively low chance of replacing RR or RCB in the playoff race. KKR and SRH are still in the field, but with less mathematical probability.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We saw all 512 possible combinations of results with 9 matches left. We assumed that for any given match the chances of victory of both the parties are equal. We then saw how many combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. It gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, out of 512 possible result combinations, RR ranks first to fourth in points in 480 combinations. That translates into 93.8% chance. We do not consider the net run rate or “no result” as it is impossible to predict in advance.

Come back for our updated forecast on Monday (May 16) morning, which will take into account the results of Sunday’s matches.


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