IPL 2022: DC’s chances of qualifying increase, RR still has about 92% chance – all playoff chances in 12 points | Cricket News


With 12 matches left to play in the IPL 2022 league stage, there are still 4,096 possible combinations of results. That’s down from 8,192 chances as of Wednesday, May 11th morning.
TOI looks at each current 4,096 possibilities (the morning of May 12) so that individual teams can calculate the chances of reaching the playoffs.
Thursday, May 12 morning, GT Is the only team that has qualified for the playoffs and MI The only one that is officially out of the playoff race. Here’s what the various playoff permutations and combinations look like right now:
* MI is out of calculation for the playoff spot
*CSKHis chances of finishing third or fourth on points have risen to 4.8%, but he needs to win his remaining three matches to do so.
* Even if CSK finished third or fourth on points, they could miss out on four points if they were tied for fourth place with 14 points, even if they were tied for third place or between two to six teams.
*KKRChances of finishing fourth on points have increased slightly to 7%, but the best they can expect, like CSK, are third with four to seven teams or fourth with two to six teams in the competition.
*DC Their chances of getting into the top four slots on points have significantly increased to 40.6% but they cannot top the points table.
*PBKSThe chances of being in the top four have also increased to 26.6% but, like DC, they will no longer be at the top of the points table.
*SRHThe chances of finishing in the top four places on points are a bit low at 23.4% and they can’t even finish at the top of the points table.
*RCBThe chances of getting a place in one of the top four slots on the point have dropped to 88.7%. Worst of all, they will be sixth on points
*R.R.Despite their defeat on Wednesday, they have a 91.8% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points. But even if they lose the rest of their games they could go as low as joint sixth
*LSG It is also set to reach the top four slots on points in its first IPL season. But he could end up in the playoffs with a five-way tie for second place, a four-way tie for third place or even a three-way tie for fourth place, ending at 16 points.
* GT, even in its first IPL season, has secured qualification and can do nothing worse than a four-way tie for the top spot in which it ranks fourth on the net run rate.
* In short, bet on GT, LSG, RR and RCB that DC, PBKS and SRH have a relatively low chance of replacing RR or RCB in the playoff race. Anything else would be a long shot
How we calculate these probabilities:
We saw all 4,096 possible combinations of results with the remaining 12 matches in the league stage. We assumed that for any given match the chances of victory of both the parties are equal. We then saw how many combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. It gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, out of 4,096 possible result combinations, RCB ranked first to fourth in points out of 3,632 combinations. That translates into 88.7% chance. We do not consider the net run rate or “no result” as it is impossible to predict in advance.
Come back for our updated forecast on Friday (May 13) morning, which will take into account the results of Thursday’s match.

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